The downbeat mood of the times was confirmed before Christmas by the publication of the Bloomberg Pessimist’s Guide to 2017. The guide lists some of the things that could go badly wrong across the world in 2017. Last year the Guide predicted both Brexit and Donald Trump’s election as US president. This year the possibilities range from the collapse of the Mexican economy after Mr Trump pulls the US out of Nafta to the election of Marine Le Pen as the next president of France. Some of the predictions, such as California’s decision to declare independence from the US (Calexit), to the forced departure of the Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman could be seen as ambivalent outcomes that many would welcome. Pessimism, however, has its limits and so here, are a few notes of hope for the New Year. As ever, I have focused on the core issues of energy but politics are never far away. Some of the possibilities listed seem to me highly likely to occur to one degree or another. Others are long shots – but then Donald Trump was a long shot a year ago.
2016年圣诞节前，彭博2017年《悲观者指南》(Bloomberg Pessimist’s Guide)的发布确认了当今的悲观情绪。这份指南列出了2017年manbetx app苹果 可能会出现严重问题的一些事件。英国退欧和唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)当选美国总统这两件事，去年的《指南》都预测到了。今年，可能发生的最糟糕情况多种多样，从特朗普让美国退出《北美自由贸易协定》(NAFTA)后墨西哥manbetx20客户端下载 崩溃到马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)当选法国下届总统。一些预测（例如加州决定脱离美国宣布独立以及沙特副王储穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)被迫离开）可能被视为好坏参半的结果，会受到许多人的欢迎。然而，悲观主义是有限度的，因此以下是2017年值得期待的几点。像以往一样，我一直关注于核心的能源问题，但政治从未远离。在我看来，从某种程度而言，以下列出的一些可能性似乎很有可能成真。其他则可能性很小，但一年前，特朗普当选也是可能性很小的事件。