After the initial shock of Britain’s vote to leave the EU, businesses and consumers appear to be regaining their composure. In the aftermath of the referendum, indicators of economic activity plunged to their lowest levels since the global financial crisis.
With a new government in place and a fresh injection of monetary stimulus, both manufacturing and the services sectors have bounced back. Retail spending and house prices have held up. Although the weaker pound will feed inflation and eat into household budgets, it now looks more likely Britain will escape the Brexit-induced recession that many had feared.
This resilience is a great relief, but it is little guide to the long-term health of the economy. The UK’s ability to prosper outside the EU depends primarily on whether companies see it as stable environment to do business and can be confident of a return on their investments. The strong warning delivered by Japan’s government, detailing the concerns of Japanese businesses operating in the UK, shows how challenging it will be for Theresa May, prime minister, to provide such reassurance.