June was kind to macro hedge funds. They were up more than 3 per cent, in what was their best month since 2010, according to data from Hedge Fund Research, buoyed by long positions on the yen and — for the most fortunate — long on both the yen and the dollar, and short sterling.
Currencies and currency-related trades have been among the few bright spots for hedge funds recently (along with gold, which has risen more than 30 per cent since the end of 2015, according to Credit Suisse). Riding the yen and dollar up and taking on derivative trades, such as shorting Chinese companies that have lots of US dollar debt and dollar costs, have been among the few clear trends to follow.
But generally, these are challenging times for the industry in the short and long term. For most of the year and most hedge fund strategies, 2016 has not been great. “The world has turned into Japan,” says the head of one Hong Kong-based fund. “When rates are this low, returns are low. There is too much money and too few opportunities.”