Spring is coming in the oil market. That was the message from the heads of the world’s largest trading houses at the FT’s commodities conference in Lausanne this week. The overwhelming consensus among these influential figures in the market is that crude is unlikely to return to the prices below $30 per barrel that it reached in January, and the trend is now upwards.
The markets do seem to support that interpretation. After a 4 per cent jump on Tuesday, internationally traded Brent crude is almost 60 per cent above its low point in January.
Even now, prices of about $44 per barrel are still below the level that most people in the oil industry would consider sustainable for the long term, so it is certainly plausible to think that the correction is now under way.