Rationing hits Japan’s nappy trade as Chinese demand soars

With the shops in Tokyo’s Ginza district preparing to close for the day, and the tour guide begging they return to the coach, two tourists from Chengdu, China, hit a crescendo in their debate over quality, styling and workmanship.

Rationed to a single case each because of extraordinary demand, one grabs the largest box of Merries, the other a box of Goo.N and they leave in divided silence. When it comes to Japanese nappies and their beloved softness, Chinese passions run high.

Investors are trying to parse the demographics, arbitrage windows, bottlenecks and distortions of an Asian nappy market with annual sales of about $12bn, forecast by CLSA to reach $45bn by 2030.