2016美国大选

Look beyond the polls for the real odds on Donald Trump

A

canny Scots acquaintance observed the other day, “you can lie to a pollster any time you want but you don’t lie to your bookmaker.” Anybody can lay off or hedge bets, but his fundamental point has validity, never more so as the 2016 presidential election gets closer.

Public opinion polls are a dime a dozen but some have shown, as the Republican Donald Trump repeatedly asserts, that he could beat Hillary Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner, next November. Others have suggested that Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, the two Republican senators apparently on the rise, could run her close.

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