专栏香港公投

The electoral volcano beneath Hong Kong and Taiwan

The people of Hong Kong may now have to wait years to vote after the city rejected Beijing’s offer of a castrated form of universal suffrage. [LINK: BY CONTRAST?]By contrast, the people of Taiwan, electoral eunuchs no more after a two-decade democratic evolution, will be going to the polls again in about six months. Their choice could be explosive. In all likelihood, January’s presidential election will result in a victory for Tsai Ing-wen, an opposition leader whom Beijing — and the US — has previously depicted as a dangerous splittist.

Within the constraints of the “one-country, two systems” framework, Beijing has mostly called the shots in Hong Kong since the city reverted to Chinese rule 18 years ago this week. Not so in Taiwan. The island has remained in effect independent since it was lost, first to the Jap