Last year provided yet another demonstration of the haphazard link between economic growth and share prices. China grew at the slowest rate in a quarter of a century, yet shares listed in Shanghai jumped 53 per cent.
It makes no sense to ask which was right, since current economic growth has little impact on the long-run stream of future profits on which today’s share prices should depend. Even future growth is only tangentially related to shares, as profits per share — vital to prices — depend on many other factors than gross domestic profit.
But it does matter why shares rose so much. There are lots of possible explanations.
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