Not long ago, before the euro existed, French politicians would have felt uncomfortable presenting a budget in deficit. The devaluation of the franc against the Deutschmark was unpalatable at home and would have provoked a costly reaction from the markets. The single currency appears to have worked since as an anaesthetic. On the eve of the European Commission’s scrutiny of its 2015 budget – and after overshooting its deficit-reduction targets for a third time – France displays a disconcerting air of nonchalance.
So, three years after the eurozone reinforced its economic governance and brought in the fiscal compact – the treaty that strengthens the terms of the EU’s stability and growth pact – where are we, and where do we go?
The fear of a euro break-up has gone, and the days of make-or-break summits are over. But now the spectre of deflation haunts a highly unstable geopolitical climate. Some member states at the periphery underwent reform programmes that have broadly succeeded. Today it is the largest economies – France, Germany and Italy – that hold the answer to the European recovery conundrum.