After a decade in which reserve managers built ever greater stockpiles to shield themselves against external shocks, global reserve growth stalled last year as the Federal Reserve’s plans to taper stimulus prompted a flight from emerging markets.
But a year on from the “taper tantrum”, global reserves are growing at the fastest pace since early 2012, according to a Citigroup analysis of eight countries that publish figures on a daily or weekly basis. With low volatility fuelling an exuberant carry trade in emerging markets assets, some authorities are taking the opportunity to rebuild their defences in preparation for an eventual rise in US interest rates.
In the first quarter of the year, China was the dominant force – adding $130bn to its vast stockpile as it engineered a devaluation in the renminbi. Although its reserve growth has slowed, its holdings totalled almost $4tn by the end of June.