Is China being stupid? Or is it being really clever? That in a nutshell is the foreign policy debate over Beijing’s seemingly concerted effort to provoke its neighbours. The case that China is being stupid is easy to make. In recent weeks Beijing has picked simultaneous fights with Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan. It moved an oil rig near Chinese-controlled islands claimed by Hanoi, triggering anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam in which four people died. This week a Chinese fishing boat, part of a large flotilla around the rig, was accused of sinking a Vietnamese fishing boat.
Prodding at Manila’s maritime claims – whether by building artificial islands or seeking to control fishing grounds – has also turned the Philippines against China. After kicking the Americans out of the Subic Bay naval base in 1992, Manila has now asked them to come back. During President Barack Obama’s recent swing through Asia, it signed an agreement to allow US ships and aircraft to use its bases.
China has also antagonised Japan. By flooding disputed areas in the East China Sea with aircraft and boats, it is challenging Japan’s administrative control of the disputed Senkaku Islands, known as Diaoyu by Beijing. That has given Shinzo Abe, the rightwing prime minister, all the excuse he needs to press for a reinterpretation of Japan’s pacifist constitution. Mr Abe wants Japan to be able to fight in defence of its allies. Japan’s more assertive stance, far from troubling its neighbours, has been welcomed by many. Tokyo is supplying the Philippines with coastguard boats and has promised to do the same for Vietnam. In short, China appears to have scored an own goal by driving its neighbours into each other’s arms. All trace of China’s smile diplomacy has vanished.