Europe’s corridors of power are echoing to the cries of agitated equivocation. Yes, Vladimir Putin has violated sacred international norms and put at risk the security of the European continent. Yes, European leaders must roundly condemn the Russian president for his seizure of Ukrainian territory. And yes, those who believe in international law should do something more than wag a finger. All this is well understood. We must not, however, get carried away.
In Britain, ministers fret that economic retaliation would jeopardise the City of London’s money laundering operations. Russia, with its reliable multi-billion-dollar supply of dirty money, is a much cherished customer in the capital’s booming property market. In Germany, business leaders implore Angela Merkel, the chancellor, not to threaten lucrative exports or invite interruption of Russian gas supplies. In Rome Matteo Renzi, the new prime minister, is told he must not upset Italy’s powerful energy bosses.
It would be nice to imagine that EU leaders had framed a carefully calibrated response to Mr Putin’s aggression. Blending prudence with toughness, Europe is eschewing draconian sanctions now in order to de-escalate the conflict, but will step up the pressure decisively if Mr Putin refuses to admit Ukrainian sovereignty in Crimea. This indeed was the EU summit’s official message. Sad to say, Europe’s caution has been the handmaiden of pusillanimity rather than of diplomatic calculation; and without evidence of serious resolve Mr Putin has no reason to step back.