The official theme for this year’s World Economic Forum is predictably bland – “Reshaping the World”. But the unofficial slogan will be “America is back”. Predictions that the US economy will grow by 3 per cent this year – added to worries about emerging markets – mean that Davos is likely to be bullish on America for the first time in years.
But a revival of the US economy should not be confused with a resurgence of America’s role as the “sole superpower”. On the contrary, the most important emerging theme in world politics is America’s slow retreat from its role as global policeman.
Some of America’s closest partners now talk openly of a diminished US global presence. Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, recently gave a speech in which he said: “The United States gives the impression of no longer wanting to get drawn into crises.” As a result, he said, America’s allies are “increasingly factoring in their calculations . . . the possibility that they will be left to their own devices in managing crises”. Even Israel is adjusting. Its foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, recently remarked: “Ties between Israel and the US are weakening . . . The Americans today are dealing with too many challenges.” The Israeli analysis is shared by America’s other key ally in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, which is furious at what it regards as US disengagement.