There are as many theories about how to value the future earnings of Macau’s casinos as there are about how to win on its tables. One thing is clear: betting against them – the casino operators, that is, if not the house odds – has been a mug’s game. Even so, as every gambler knows to his cost, no winning streak lasts forever.
Take Macau’s $44bn gross gaming revenues in the first 11 months of the year and divide by the six casino licence-holders in the former Portuguese territory. In theory, each generates more than Las Vegas – with dozens of casinos along its Strip alone – did in total last year ($6bn).
Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, the two titans of Macau’s Cotai Strip, surpass this revenue level as does Stanley Ho’s SJM Holdings, the biggest of them all. Growth at all of them has looked like a series of double-sixes: combined revenues have doubled on a compound basis, and profits have nearly so, in every year since 2009.