Another US growth number. Another stifled round of applause. At 1.7 per cent, US gross domestic product growth in the three months to June was higher than many analysts had feared. Yet what the statistics God gives he also taketh away. In the same announcement, GDP growth for the first quarter was revised down to 1.1 per cent (from 1.8 per cent). Add in the negligible number from the last quarter of 2012 and the US has grown just 0.9 per cent on an annualised basis over the past nine months.
Given the fiscal drag from the “sequestration” earlier this year, this is hardly surprising. The impact of the cuts ought to taper off in the next year. But there is plenty of scope for Washington to alter US growth expectations in either direction. Unfortunately, downwards seems more likely.
On the upside, President Barack Obama unveiled a sensible proposal on Tuesday to overhaul the Byzantine US corporate tax system. While modest – and excluding personal income taxes – Mr Obama’s mini “grand bargain” would at least row in the right direction. Eliminating loopholes and reducing the rate of corporation tax to 28 per cent could help bring the US investment drought to an end.