Worries are growing that the Bank of Japan’s great monetary experiment will destabilise other economies. It is still a currency war of words only. But it would not be surprising if a monetary expansion of the scale planned by BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda did indeed spill over into connected markets.
Money-printing in Europe and the US has fuelled credit booms from Ankara to São Paulo. There are signs the monetary pillar of “Abenomics” – Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s effort to restart Japan’s economy – may have similar effects in Asia. Japanese investors have become net buyers of foreign bonds and stocks. Beijing fears hot money inflows camouflaged as export proceeds.
So far, however, danger has been averted. The International Monetary Fund sees no “evidence yet that Japanese policy has led to significant spillovers”. Abenomics’ financial effects have mainly taken place inside Japan. The stock market has stumbled after a breathtaking rally but the Nikkei remains 27 per cent above where it was at the new year. Government bond yields have gone up, showing that private investors have sold even as the BoJ has committed to an unprecedented buying spree.