Anyone who would dare buy Hewlett-Packard’s shares must take four points as given. One: HP is badly managed. Sure, Meg Whitman got the top job after the acquisition of Autonomy. But would it be prudent to expect astute decision-making from HP’s leaders, given recent events? Two: four of HP’s five operating divisions (personal computers, printers, services, enterprise hardware) are facing secular declines in revenues, margin compression, or both. Again, the historical record and the performance of HP’s competitors make it foolhardy to bet any other way. Three: HP’s growing software business, is a bit, ah, hard to predict. After the Autonomy debacle, does anyone want to argue this? Four: HP’s revenue and cash flow are most likely in permanent decline. This last point follows from the first three.
如今若有任何人还敢买进惠普(HP)股票，那么他们必须接受以下四个事实。首先，惠普管理不善。诚然，梅格•惠特曼(Meg Whitman)是在惠普收购Autonomy之后出任首席执行官的。但考虑到最近的一系列事件，仍然期待惠普的领导层能做出英明决策，这理智吗？其次，惠普五大业务部门中的四个（个人电脑、打印产品、服务、企业硬件）正面临营收长期下滑或（和）利润率下降。考虑到惠普以往的记录及其竞争对手们的表现，赌这种局面会改变同样是鲁莽的。第三，惠普的软件业务尽管正在增长，但有点儿，怎么说呢，前途叵测。在折戟Autonomy之后，还有人想要质疑这一点吗？第四，惠普目前的营收和现金流下滑很可能将是一种长期趋势。最后一点是由前三点推导出来的。