Ministers are tomorrow expected to put Russia on track to become a member of the World Trade Organisation in 2012. Countless hours of negotiations, spanning 18 years and several generations of ministers, are nearing a successful conclusion. Yet doubts remain. Have the delays not largely been due to Russia’s own actions, ask WTO members? The Russians too have doubts: will the benefits of membership offset the discomfort of WTO-imposed disciplines and accountability? Amid all the uncertainty on the Russian stage, does WTO membership still make sense? My answer is: yes, yes and yes.
Both sides are right to be worried but right also to be moving ahead, even in the face of uncertainty; while Russia’s accession could be good for the global trading system, Russia’s economy and its people, it could do considerable damage to an institution whose credibility has been compromised by its failure to move beyond the Doha round.
So why might some Russians still have doubts? Mainly because this is a very tough organisation to join. Early members of the WTO and its predecessor have had decades to negotiate down their trade barriers, and to bring their domestic laws and regulations into compliance with WTO rules. Newer members are expected to do it in five to 10 years. For the country applying to get in, it can feel particularly one-sided, because unlike a normal trade negotiation with gives and takes, here the applicant must first grant market access concessions on a bilateral basis to individual WTO members, and then respond to the membership as a whole.