The expectation that China might swoop down and rescue the euro in its hour of need is running high. Wen Jiabao, the premier, last week told a meeting of the World Economic Forum that “China is willing to give a helping hand, and we’ll continue to invest there”. But those expecting China to offer anything more than symbolic assistance will soon be disappointed.
China knows that greater eurozone stability is in its national interest. The European Union is its second largest trading partner, and a disorderly collapse in Greece and other southern European countries would have dire consequences for Europe’s economic prospects. Neither turmoil in currency markets, nor sharp changes to trade flows, nor potential moves towards greater protectionism would be at all welcome in Beijing.
More strategically, the euro’s ongoing success is vital if China is ever to escape the “dollar trap” that currently ensnares its economy. Analysts believe that two-thirds of China’s $32,000bn foreign reserves are dollar-denominated, leaving it constantly fearful of a falling dollar. China’s long-term goal is to make the renminbi an international currency, but this will take time. In the meantime, its interests are clearly served by a strong euro.