Those who believe the commodities bull market has run its course could do worse than cite China. For the world’s biggest buyer of everything from cotton to iron ore, it has been an unusually quiet year. Imports of some raw materials have actually fallen, confounding expectations that strong demand would drive prices even higher.
Copper is a good example. Chinese imports of refined copper were down 25 per cent from January to May compared with the same period of last year. Ivan Glasenberg, chief executive of Glencore, the world’s largest commodities trader, neatly captured the mood this month when he said: “We see a pullback in China and it will continue.”
Although Mr Glasenberg also cautioned that the slowdown in imports would probably be short-lived, his comments have triggered an intense debate in the markets over whether Chinese demand is really slowing down or whether the country, after stockpiling raw materials last year, is simply running down its inventories.