The past 100 days have been a dramatic time for energy markets, as a nuclear accident in Japan followed revolt across the Middle East, with oil prices fluctuating sharply in the aftermath. Despite the sense of crisis, however, neither Fukushima nor conflict in Libya is likely to disrupt long-term patterns in global energy supplies. But there is one new development – the rising importance of shale gas – that just might.
Much of Libya’s oil production has been lost for the past two months but other members of the Opec producers’ cartel have boosted supplies. There are still 4m barrels a day of spare capacity. Prices rose by more than 20 per cent, but this reflected nervousness about what could happen next in the Middle East. In particular, there are signals of uncertainty in Saudi Arabia, with persistent rumours about King Abdullah’s health and no clarity on the succession. Following last week’s correction, when prices started to fall back, it appears $125 a barrel was a temporary peak. The market valuations of companies such as Shell and Exxon, which would have benefited more from sustained high oil prices, have remained largely unchanged.
Nor has the tragedy in Japan transformed the nuclear sector. Only Germany has closed nuclear plants, although others have delayed or reviewed plans. And even Germany is making up lost supplies with imports from neighbouring France and the Czech Republic – both of which, ironically, generate their electricity from nuclear power.