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Beware risks inherent in the global recovery

The increase in eurozone interest rates is only one sign of a global economic recovery that appears to be self-sustaining and gathering fresh momentum.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said this week that, outside Japan, the annualised growth rate of the Group of Seven economies would probably reach 3 per cent in the first half of the year, “with financial conditions improving across the board”.

The Brookings Institution/FT Tracking Indices for the global economic recovery (Tiger) has ticked up, reflecting better news from real indicators such as industrial production and livelier “animal spirits” – or business confidence – in company bosses. Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at Brookings, said: “While it is still premature to declare victory after the ravages [of the global crisis], the world economy is now in a far better state than it was a year ago.”

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