The Federal Reserve’s governors are trying to tell investors something. But no one seems to be listening – except perhaps the foreign exchange market. Since the trade-weighted index for the US currency peaked in June last year, amid the Greek crisis, it has been a one-way downward bet, falling 15 per cent in spite of this year’s alarming geopolitical events. This was not about Uncle Sam’s deficits. After all, US Treasury 10-year yields have scarcely moved since last June, and remain historically low, while US equities barely underperformed stocks from the rest of the world.
美联储(Fed)的理事们正试图告诉投资者些什么，只是似乎无人聆听——或许除了外汇市场。美元贸易加权指数自去年6月希腊危机期间见顶以来一路下跌，尽管今年发生了一些惊心动魄的地缘政治事件，跌幅仍达到15%。原因并不在于美国的财政赤字。毕竟，10年期美国国债的收益率从去年6月以来几乎一动不动，一直保持在历史低位，而美国股市的表现与其他地区相比也谈不上逊色。