In January a new Republican majority takes charge in the US House of Representatives. The balance of political power is about to shift decisively – yet the result is not pre-ordained. Can a bitterly divided government get things done, or must the country prepare for two years of quarrelsome stagnation?
In the last frantic days of the current session of Congress, the government’s authority to spend, the fate of George W. Bush’s tax cuts, the possible extension of unemployment benefits and ratification of the Start nuclear arms accord are all in the balance – and politically interconnected. The deals struck, or not struck, in the dying days of this Congress could set a pattern for the remainder of Barack Obama’s first presidential term. The signs so far are mixed, but hint at some interesting possibilities.
At first sight, the usual post-election promises of co-operation and bipartisanship clash with the reality of bitter political division. On both sides, the prevailing sentiment is “no surrender”. The parties have mutually irreconcilable visions of the country’s future and are reluctant to give an inch. As the pendulum swings, each in turn interprets electoral success, however tentative, as a mandate for radical change, and electoral defeat, however crushing, as only a temporary setback.