Yet again, we hear the cry of the old economic religion: repent before it is too late; the wages of fiscal sin is death. But is it already time to retrench? I doubt it. At least, we must recognise the risks: delayed retrenchment poses the danger of inflation and even default; premature retrenchment threatens recession and even deflation, as I argued last week. Having barely survived the biggest financial meltdown in history, we need to appreciate that these downside risks are serious.
又一次，我们听到了旧manbetx20客户端下载 信条的呼喊：在一切已太晚之前悔悟吧；财政错误的代价将是灭亡。但现在已到了紧缩的时候吗？我对此表示怀疑。至少，我们必须认识到以下风险：紧缩举措出台 太晚，会带来通胀甚至违约的危险；而过早地紧缩，则会导致manbetx20客户端下载 衰退乃至通缩，我在上周已论证过这一问题。刚刚从有史以来最严重的金融灾难中死里逃生的我们，必须认识到这些下行风险不容小觑。
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