Military analysts are warning that China's increased regional power has caused its south-east Asian neighbours to step up their own defence purchases, raising the prospect that territorial disputes in the South China Sea could turn violent.
Siemon Wezeman, a senior fellow at the arms transfers programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), said that several south-east Asian countries had “dramatically” stepped up their purchases of submarines, fighter aircraft, and long-range missiles in recent years.
“While south-east Asian governments . . . still don't openly voice concerns over China, they think about it, and they are making a statement with what they are buying,” he said. “Fifteen years ago, there were the same conflicting claims in the South China Sea but the countries didn't have the means to enforce their claims. Now, the moment somebody hits oil there, things might look very dangerous.”