Argentina's default in 2001 didn't come out of the blue. Nor did Lehman's collapse. Yet both caused shockwaves. Now it may be Dubai's turn. Investors fear that a debt standstill by Dubai World, the city kingdom's largest state-owned conglomerate, is a prelude to a forced restructuring of its estimated $60bn of liabilities. This has caused a repricing of risk both in and beyond the Gulf. Bank share prices took a pummelling yesterday. HSBC, down 5 per cent, was among the worst hit, given its estimated $16bn exposure to the United Arab Emirates. The dollar and bunds rose.
阿根廷2001年的违约并非毫无前兆。雷曼(Lehman)破产也是如此。但两者都对市场产生了冲击。现在或许轮到迪拜了。投资者担心，迪拜最大国有集团迪拜世界(Dubai World)暂停偿债，是其大约600亿美元债务被迫重组的序曲。人们不得不对海湾区内外的国家的风险进行重新定价。银行股股价昨日大幅下挫。鉴于在阿联酋大约160亿美元的风险敞口，汇丰(HSBC)成为受冲击最为严重的一家银行，股价下跌5%。美元和德国国债则出现上涨。