Yesterday's news that US retail sales fell 1.1 per cent in March is a blow to the idea that green shoots in the world economy herald the start of recovery.
The report is still consistent with the idea that the rate of decline has slowed from the precipitous pace seen in the final months of 2008, when it looked as if the world economy was falling off a cliff.
But it offers a reminder that the economy could continue to decline at a slower pace for some time and that the shape of the eventual recovery remains uncertain. There remains a risk of an extended period of weak growth punctuated by periods of contraction, as seen in Japan in the 1990s.
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