Looking beyond immediate events, the biggest structural imbalance in the global economy remains the US current account deficit – the US has been living beyond its means, financed by emerging markets savings, for the best part of a decade. Should this change then the dollar will have to fall against emerging currencies. Local currency debt is one of the best, if not the best, hedges against structural dollar weakness. Should developed world turmoil worsen, dollar weakness is the top feature of the most bearish global scenarios. Investors wanting to insure against this risk should allocate to emerging local currency debt.
透过眼下发生的事件放眼来看，manbetx app苹果 manbetx20客户端下载 最大的结构性失衡仍是美国的经常账户赤字。十年来的大部分时间里，美国一直入不敷出，靠新兴市场的储蓄提供资金。倘若这种局面发生变化，美元兑新兴市场货币汇率必将走软。本币债务是规避美元结构性疲软的最佳对冲工具之一——如果说并非唯一的最佳对冲工具。假如发达世界的混乱加剧，manbetx app苹果 陷入最为惨淡的境况，那么，美元疲软将是其中最显著的特征。投资者要防范这种风险，应该配置一些资金到新兴市场的本币债务。