In spite of the magnitude of current challenges, if there was ever a good time for the US, and the world, to face these remarkable challenges, this is it. That is because of the extent to which consumption in the leading emerging market economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) countries – should be able to offset the slowdown in the US.
A large amount of global demand continues to be created from inside the BRICs. This is especially the case with China, where August saw an acceleration in inflation-adjusted reported retail sales to 15.9 per cent. The Chinese shopper alone is contributing more to global GDP than the infamous US shopper. Meanwhile, Brazil has reported much stronger than expected 6.1 per cent GDP growth for the latest quarter.
According to our latest estimates, so far this decade there has been nearly as much global demand from the BRIC countries as from the US. Going forward, their share of global demand will start to move towards that of all the G7 (group of seven leading industrialised nations).