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Update: the UK isn’t in recession unless it is, in which case it is

Productio ad absurdum

“Avoiding a recession shows our economy is more resilient than many feared”, said Jeremy Hunt, who at pixel time is the UK chancellor, in response to a flatlined first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP.

As the FT reports:

Gross domestic product was unchanged between the third and fourth quarters of 2022, following a contraction in the previous three months, according to data published on Friday by the Office for National Statistics.

That was in line with analysts’ expectations but was weaker than the 0.1 per cent expansion expected by the Bank of England. The flat reading means the UK avoided a technical recession, usually defined as two consecutive quarters of falling output.

But zero is a very round number; zero-point-zero doubly so. Is there a more granular view?

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