After riding high for much of the pandemic, mRNA vaccine pioneers came down to earth in 2022. By mid-June, the share prices of both Massachusetts-based Moderna and Germany’s BioNTech had more than halved. But investors’ excitement was rekindled a few weeks ago when Moderna and partner Merck published a promising set of melanoma trial results. After five decades of failed attempts, cancer vaccines are set for a breakthrough.
Unlike normal vaccines, these shots will treat, not prevent, the disease. Using mRNA technology should prompt the immune system to destroy mutated cells, often by tailoring them to the recipient’s tumour. That is the case in the Moderna melanoma trial. Its mRNA vaccine, combined with Merck’s immunotherapy, cut the risk of later-stage melanoma recurrence or death by 44 per cent in high-risk patients compared with immunotherapy alone.
The 27 per cent — or $16.8bn — jump in Moderna’s market value over two days following the announcement reflected investors’ wider hopes for cancer vaccines. Assuming a 50 to 75 per cent probability of success, the later-stage melanoma treatment market is worth up to $5bn to the company.