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Did the US labour market cool in November?

Market Questions is the FT’s guide to the week ahead

Did US jobs growth slow in November?

Economists expect the US economy continued adding jobs in November despite rising interest rates and concerns of a looming recession.

Wall Street expects the number of people on US payrolls rose by 200,000 in November from the previous month, according to economists polled by Reuters. This would be the lowest job creation since December 2020 and down from the 261,000 jobs added in October. However, the robust employment gains would show strength in an already tight labour market that is in contrast with other sectors of the economy, such as the housing market or retail sales, which are struggling under the aggressive pace of interest rate increases, according to Sandra Horsfield, economist at Investec.

US job creation has come in stronger than expected for the last seven months, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its policy rates by historically large 0.75 percentage points in the last four meetings as it battles with high inflation. “The Fed will be hoping for some loosening in labour market conditions in next week’s report to justify a smaller increment policy rate hike at its next meeting in December, as is widely expected,” said Horsfield.

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