Merger and acquisitions advisory is an inherently cyclical business. When the economy is strong, dealmaking and the revenues attached to it go up. In periods of contraction, companies do fewer deals.
The current economic environment, however, is puzzling for most US chief executives. Growth is robust, the trade deficit is shrinking, unemployment is low and wages keep rising. Yet, recession risks loom as central banks seek to tame inflation with higher interest rates. This adds to other negatives: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, tumbling stock prices and tensions between the US and China.
All this has made dealmaking tougher than usual. The data is unequivocal. So far, overall global activity is down 33 per cent compared with the same period a year ago, according to Refinitiv data. That slump is even bigger in the US where the frenzy around the blank cheque investment vehicles known as Spacs has evaporated.