Eight years after Russia annexed Crimea, it has claimed sovereignty over an even larger chunk of Ukrainian territory through military force and sham “votes”. The post-second world war settlement in Europe lies shattered. By declaring that any attack on the annexed regions would be treated as an assault on Russia itself, and that Moscow sees itself as in an existential war against the west, Vladimir Putin has taken the conflict into its most perilous phase. Nerve-jangling times lie ahead. Yet for western allies to allow this illegal land grab to stand would set a further, devastating precedent. They must formulate their strategy with utmost care, but need to hold their nerve.
Putin’s response to Ukraine’s stunning recent advance in north-eastern Kharkiv has been only to escalate. His mobilisation of fighting-age men aims to bolster Russia’s battered and demoralised forces in Ukraine and avert a broader collapse. His rushing through of planned annexation referendums has allowed him, for now, to declare a victory for his domestic audience.
While Putin on Friday blamed “Anglo-Saxons”, moreover, for explosions that have crippled the Nord Stream gas pipelines to Germany, the most credible explanation is sabotage by Russia. James Sherr, a Russia-watcher at the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute and Chatham House, suggests they send a message that Moscow is ready to target critical western infrastructure — and that, for the Kremlin, there is now “no going back”.