Past presidential elections in Brazil have been marked by wild swings in asset prices. Brazilians are once again gearing up to cast their ballots. But acrimonious exchanges aside, the campaign has thus far stood out for its relative lack of market volatility.
With four weeks to go to the first-round ballot, leftist ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains the frontrunner. But his lead is narrowing. He is polling at 43 per cent while right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is at 35 per cent, according to a recent survey.
The one-month volatility in the real, a gauge of how much money investors are willing to pay to insure against the currency’s swings over the next 30 days, stands at 16.6. That is well below the level of almost 30 reached at the start of the pandemic in early 2020.