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The looming risks in private equity returns

More insulated than stock markets, the industry is still exuberant — but the reckoning may be coming
The writer is a managing director at Van Lanschot Kempen

The stock market has run out of exuberance, but private equity has not. That is leading to some extreme distortions in the correlations between the public and private markets.

Stock markets are seeing large and fast declines as the largest single US buyer of financial securities — the Federal Reserve — switches to selling while raising rates.

The private equity world remains more insulated, still primed after boom fundraising years with an abundance of “dry powder” — uninvested but available money. Bain estimates the industry had its second-best fundraising year in its history, capping a five-year run that has netted $1.8tn in new buyout capital.

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