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US yield curve inverts in possible recession signal

Two-year Treasury yields rise above those of the 10-year for first time since August 2019

A closely watched recession signal flashed red on Tuesday, as investors fretted that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation will bring about a sharp slowdown in US economic activity.

Two-year Treasury note yields rose above those of the 10-year for the first time since August 2019, inverting a portion of the yield curve monitored closely by Wall Street and policymakers. Inversions typically signal malaise about the economy’s long-term growth prospects and have preceded every US recession in the past 50 years.

Typically, a recession has followed in the two years after an inversion of this measure of the yield curve.

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