The future looks unremittingly bright for ASML, Europe’s most valuable technology company, apart from one dot on the horizon: geopolitics. As the manufacturer of what one tech executive calls “the most complicated machine humans have built”, ASML is benefiting from the global boom for semiconductors that run our connected world.
On Wednesday, the Dutch company, which sells photolithographic machines to the world’s leading chip manufacturers, announced standout quarterly results. The company now boasts a stock market value of around $300bn, reflecting a nearly sixfold increase over the past five years. Growth prospects remain tantalising: ASML predicts that the semiconductor industry’s combined sales will double to $1tn by 2030. “Our customers are craving those machines,” says Peter Wennink, ASML’s chief executive.
However, like other semiconductor players, ASML is trapped in the tightening vice between the US and China as they vie for technological supremacy. How the company deals with this dilemma will tell us much about the future shape of our technological world. Under US pressure, the Dutch government is reviewing an export licence for ASML’s most advanced machines to China. Dividing the world into blue (US) and red (China) supply chains threatens to tear apart one of its most tightly integrated industries. For a company that has 5,000 suppliers, that may make life tricky and costly.