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‘Hawkish shift’ in US rates upends global currency bets

Expectations of a Fed rate rise trigger reversal in emerging market and commodity currencies

A resurgence in the dollar has sent bets on the currencies of big emerging markets and major commodity producers into reverse, as a hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve upends what had been one of the strongest trades in FX markets this year.

Currencies such as the Argentine peso and Norwegian krone have been hit in recent weeks as markets have begun to price in higher US interest rates, boosting the appeal of dollar assets.

Underlining the shift, Kevin Warsh dropped the Fed’s longstanding bias towards easing rates at his first meeting as the head of the central bank on Wednesday. Traders in futures markets are now expecting a quarter-point rate rise by October.

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