Like pummelled dough, the world regains its shape after major disruptions, but with subtle indentations. The Covid pandemic did not permanently kill off gyms and handshakes, but remote work habits and higher national debts endure. Now, with the Strait of Hormuz about to reopen, we will see what fingerprints the Iran war has left on the world’s energy markets.
President Trump says “oil will flow” from Friday. In reality it may take months for things to get back to full speed given the fragility of the US-Iran accord, snarled-up logistics and damaged infrastructure. But it is a fair bet that, once flows resume properly, there will actually be a lot of extra oil in the system.
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