For 16 years, Hungary’s prime minister has exerted an outsized influence. Viktor Orbán has been a model for strongmen leaders in building what he calls an “illiberal democracy”, a standard-bearer for anti-migrant nationalist conservatism, an obstacle to support for Ukraine and a thorn in the side of the EU. He is both chummy with Vladimir Putin and lauded by Donald Trump. But, for the first time since 2010, he faces a real prospect of defeat at the polls next Sunday. Not often does an election in a EU state of fewer than 10mn people attract such international attention.
In creating what the European parliament has called an “electoral autocracy”, Orbán both imported ideas from other authoritarians and exported new methods. His “state capture” borrowed from Putin in packing public roles with loyalists, and steering contracts and opportunities to loyal “oligarchs” — who then buy up independent media and support the ruling party. The Orbán system’s squeezing of judicial independence was aped by Poland’s Law and Justice. But perhaps the most significant borrower is Trump’s Maga movement; critics have called Project 2025, a blueprint for Trump’s second term, a plan to “Orbánise” the US government.
For the populist right, Orbán honed the pitch of “conservative” values of religion and family, combined with hostility to immigration and a sovereigntist rejection of foreign influence. He has been central to building a far-right alliance including France’s Marine Le Pen, the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders, Spain’s Vox and Austria’s Freedom Party, which is now the third-largest faction in the European parliament.