Russia’s Vladimir Putin called the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of US and Israeli strikes on Iran a “cynical murder” that violated “all norms of human morality and international law”. Given the Russian president’s record, his statement reeks of cynical double standards. Since then, though, beyond reportedly providing intelligence to assist Iran’s retaliation against US and allied targets, Putin has been largely quiet about the attacks on a country with which he signed a strategic partnership last year. The Russian leader is presumably following Napoleon’s maxim: never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
For now, the Iran conflict is an unintended US gift to the Kremlin. Higher global energy prices and greater demand for Russian oil are delivering a hefty windfall. The FT has calculated that Moscow is earning up to $150mn a day in extra budget revenues from taxes on oil sales, and could earn $3.3bn-$4.9bn by the end of March. Russia has not yet recouped what it lost from low oil prices and a lack of sales to India — mostly due to US pressure — in the first two months of the year. But its projected March gain amounts to roughly a third of its monthly spending on its war on Ukraine.
Rising prices have also prompted the US to temporarily relax some oil sanctions by allowing countries to buy Russian crude stranded at sea. This regrettable decision not only provides further funds for Moscow but punctures western solidarity. It fuels Putin’s narrative that the west, especially the US, is not ready to take real pain to support Kyiv.