The writer, an FT contributing editor, is a former chief economist at the Bank of England
What happens when two waves collide, disorder meets disorder, uncertainty touches uncertainty? This question has long occupied oceanographers and complexity scientists. But it is now occupying economists and finance professionals too, as they assess the effects of two waves, of unknown size and velocity, simultaneously crashing over them.
The first wave is geopolitical — the rupture in the global rules-based order. Or, more accurately, the transition from order to disorder in everything from global trade to global security. Without those rules the world’s laws of motion are more quantum than Newtonian, intrinsically and radically uncertain.
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