Financial Times reporters examine the forces likely to shape global business in the year ahead, from the durability of the defence boom and the next phase of artificial intelligence to the future of banking regulation, drug pricing and creative industries under pressure from technology.

Defence

Trend to watch

Global defence share prices and revenues have soared thanks to higher military spending since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The world’s top 100 defence companies earned a record $679bn in 2024, according to new data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and that trend continued in 2025. 

Whether the industry’s revenues can keep growing at the same rapid pace depends, in large part, on whether a peace deal can be struck between Russia and Ukraine. Investors in European defence stocks have reacted negatively every time the prospect has appeared close, demonstrating underlying scepticism about whether Europe’s rearmament drive will continue in the absence of the war.