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Global economy defies Trump’s trade war but ‘cracks in the foundation’ emerge

Research for FT warns geopolitical turmoil, weak confidence and risk of a stock market correction threaten growth

The global economy is proving more resilient than expected, despite the ferocity of Donald Trump’s trade war, but geopolitical turmoil and depressed business confidence risk sapping growth, according to research for the Financial Times.

Real activity in advanced economies is at its firmest in nearly three years, despite the shock of the US president’s tariffs, according to the latest findings of the Brookings-FT Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery, or Tiger.

Expansion has been driven in part by households and businesses bringing forward spending and investment before US tariffs took effect. A surge of inves