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What will the Fed’s minutes say about the path for interest rates?

Market Questions is the FT’s guide to the week ahead

Investors will be watching for the release on Wednesday of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its September rate-setting meeting, which should offer insight into deliberations among officials about how many times the central bank will cut interest rates again this year.

At the Fed’s September meeting, policymakers cut its key interest rate for the first time since December 2024, by 0.25 percentage points. Through its Summary of Economic Projections, the Federal Open Market Committee also signalled that it saw the possibility of at least two additional quarter-point cuts by the end of December.

The September decision was notable for being almost unanimous — there was just one dissenting vote, from President Donald Trump’s appointee Stephen Miran, who wanted interest rates to be cut by 0.5 percentage points. Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who had dissented at the board’s previous meeting, joined the majority in September, in a show of solidarity at a time when Trump has been threatening the Fed’s independence. The minutes should offer insight into the decision to cut, and might show the extent of the debate around Miran’s proposal.

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