The writer is director-general of the World Trade Organization
In the past six months, the global trading system has been jolted by the US’s unilateral actions. More than a few people have proclaimed the demise of the World Trade Organization. Such obituaries have appeared since at least the 1980s but the ongoing disruptions are unprecedented in speed and scope, and have undeniably shaken confidence in open and predictable trade. World trade did collapse in the 1930s. So understanding where it may go from here requires a close look at the facts.
The WTO secretariat projected last month that global goods trade volumes would grow by 0.9 per cent this year. Though well below the 2.7 per cent projected before the new US tariffs, this is an improvement from the 0.2 per cent contraction predicted in April. With the recent agreements, US trade-weighted average tariffs have jumped from 2.4 per cent at the beginning of the year to 18.4 per cent.