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Tech investors should beware the ‘Field of Dreams’ fallacy
科技投资者应警惕“梦幻之地”谬误

Zuckerberg has built and customers have come, but there’s no guarantee that what worked for Meta last year will work again
扎克伯格已经搭建好了平台,用户也纷纷而来,但没有任何保证Meta去年的成功经验今年还能奏效。

The most famous thing about Field of Dreams, the Kevin Costner movie in which a farmer is urged by a disembodied voice to build a baseball diamond in his cornfield, is the line “if you build it, they will come”. That’s not exactly what the voice says, but it doesn’t matter. The principle is now lodged in the popular imagination — and that of high-spending Silicon Valley executives.

《梦幻之地》最为人熟知的,是那句“如果你建造了,他们就会来”。在这部由凯文•科斯特纳(Kevin Costner)主演的电影中,一位农民受到无形声音的指引,在玉米地里建造了一座棒球场。其实,电影里的声音并没有完全这样说,但这并不重要。这个理念已经深植于大众的想象中——也包括那些高消费的硅谷高管们。

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