We appear to be in the middle of a crime paradox.
This year is on course to show the lowest rate of violent crime in decades in both Britain and America. While dreadful incidents like Tuesday’s shooting in New York deservedly receive widespread attention, they are increasingly exceptional. US rates of both violence in general and homicide specifically are down more than half from their modern peaks in the 1990s, and approaching record lows.
It’s a similar story in the UK, where violent crime has been trending downwards for three decades and continued its descent this year. But against this backdrop, the British public’s concern about crime has been trending steadily upwards for several years. And in the US, most people say crime is still rising both locally and nationally. Leaning in to the growing sense of unease, Nigel Farage, leader of the rightwing populist Reform UK party, last month hosted a press conference to warn that crime has risen so much the UK is “facing societal collapse”.